US Economy on the Rise: Jobs, Growth, and Inflation

After a period of significant inflation and economic unease, the U.S. economy is showing signs of resilience and growth. Inflation has cooled down considerably, wages are rising, and unemployment remains at a 50-year low. This positive momentum extends to trade and the stock market, with both experiencing notable improvements. However, a shadow of concern lingers regarding the potential role of corporate profits in fueling inflation. Here are the key points:

  • The GDP reached $27.4 trillion in 2023, with an annual real GDP growth rate of 4.9% in Q3 2023, up from 2.1% in Q2. This increase was driven by consumer spending, investment, government spending, and exports.

  • Inflation remains at 3.1% year-over-year as of January 2024, though down from the peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Shelter, food prices, and gasoline were major contributors to inflation in 2023.

  • Corporate profits are at record highs, with some studies suggesting they contributed significantly to inflation in 2023:

    • A report by Groundwork Collaborative found corporate profits drove 53% of inflation from April to September 2023, up from just 11% in the 40 years prior to the pandemic.

    • Economist Isabella Weber argues corporations are keeping prices high simply "because they can," even as supply chain pressures ease.

  • Average hourly earnings rose 4% year-over-year in December 2023.

  • The unemployment rate is at 50-year low of under 4%, with more open jobs than unemployed workers throughout 2023.

  • The trade deficit narrowed by 22% in 2023 to $773.4 billion, with the U.S. importing more from Mexico than China for the first time in 20 years.

Despite continued economic growth, inflation remains a challenge. Some analyses point to record corporate profits as a contributing factor. This keeps policymakers and consumers on edge, as they navigate rising prices and plan for the future.

Sources:

USA Facts

Forbes

WBUR

bea.gov