Pew Research: The Rise and Fall of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s 2024 Presidential Bid
In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics, third-party candidates often struggle to gain traction. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s 2024 presidential campaign serves as a prime example of this phenomenon. Recent data from Pew Research Center surveys conducted in July and August 2023 provide fascinating insights into the trajectory of Kennedy’s campaign and the characteristics of his supporters.
Kennedy’s Initial Surge and Subsequent Decline
Kennedy’s campaign initially showed promise, capturing the attention of approximately 15% of registered voters in early July. However, this momentum was short-lived. By early August, his support had dwindled significantly, with only 7% of voters leaning towards or preferring him for president.
The Fate of Kennedy’s Supporters
As Kennedy exits the race, it's crucial to understand what happened to his initial base of support:
Shifting Allegiances: A majority (61%) of Kennedy’s July supporters had moved on to other candidates by August.
Harris Over Trump: Among those who changed their preference, nearly twice as many opted for Kamala Harris (39%) compared to Donald Trump (20%).
Weak Commitment: Only 18% of Kennedy’s remaining supporters in August backed him strongly, in stark contrast to the strong support enjoyed by Trump (64%) and Harris (62%).
Profile of Kennedy’s Supporters
Kennedy’s supporter base had some distinct characteristics:
Age Demographics: About two-thirds of Kennedy's supporters were under 50, significantly younger than the supporter bases of Harris (46% under 50) and Trump (38% under 50).
Political Engagement: Only 24% of Kennedy supporters followed government and public affairs closely, compared to about half of Harris and Trump supporters.
Voter Motivation: A mere 23% of Kennedy supporters were extremely motivated to vote, far below the high motivation levels of Harris (70%) and Trump (72%) supporters.
Political Leanings and Views
Kennedy’s supporters exhibited a unique political profile:
Non-Partisan Tendency: 74% identified as independent or something else, with only 14% identifying as Republicans and 12% as Democrats.
Slight Republican Lean: More supporters leaned towards the Republican Party (40%) than the Democratic Party (26%).
Dissatisfaction with Major Candidates: 61% of Kennedy supporters held unfavorable views of both Harris and Trump.
Conclusion
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential bid, while initially capturing significant attention, ultimately failed to maintain momentum. The data reveals a supporter base that was younger, less politically engaged, and less motivated to vote compared to supporters of major party candidates. Moreover, the majority of his initial supporters quickly shifted allegiances when presented with alternative options.
This case study serves as a reminder of the challenges faced by third-party candidates in the American political system. It also highlights the importance of not just attracting initial support, but maintaining and strengthening that support throughout a campaign.
As we move forward in the 2024 election cycle, it will be interesting to see how the preferences of former Kennedy supporters evolve and potentially impact the race between the major party candidates.
Click here to read the report.