ICYMI: Recent Elections Show Voters Rejecting MAGA Extremism

In a recent special election held last week, Democrats secured a significant victory that has caught the attention of political analysts at FiveThirtyEight.org. Democrat Hal Rafter emerged victorious, defeating Republican James Guzofski with a 56 percent to 44 percent margin to fill a Republican-held seat in the New Hampshire state House. This outcome is not just a local event; it could be a harbinger of a larger trend with implications for the 2024 elections.

To put this into perspective, the New Hampshire district where Rafter won leans Republican by 6 percentage points compared to the national average, based on the 2020 and 2016 presidential results. However, Rafter's 12-point win represents an impressive 18-point overperformance for the Democratic Party.

"But why does this matter when only 2,800 people voted?" you might ask. While individual special elections can be influenced by various factors, the key takeaway is that Democrats have consistently outperformed expectations in special elections across different districts throughout the year. On average, their margins of victory have been 11 points higher than the partisan lean of their respective districts.

This pattern of over-performance in special elections is significant because it has historically correlated with the general election results. In the past three election cycles, the party's average over-performance in special elections closely mirrored the eventual House popular vote in the subsequent general election, often favoring Democrats.

However, it's essential to exercise caution when interpreting these results. A Democratic victory by 11 points in the 2024 popular vote, as implied by the special elections, would be a historical outlier. Moreover, polling data suggests a much closer race, with Republicans holding a slight edge.

So, which indicator should we trust? Polls, while imperfect, are not entirely unreliable. On the other hand, special elections have consistently favored Democrats recently, even though they have some unique dynamics due to lower turnout and a more college-educated electorate.

It's reasonable for Democrats to feel cautiously optimistic about the 2024 election based on the trends we're observing in special elections. Still, there remains significant uncertainty about how well these results will predict the outcome of the upcoming presidential race.

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