Pew Research: Union Voters - A Key Constituency in the 2024 Presidential Election
Union Voters: A Key Constituency in the 2024 Presidential Race
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, both major parties are vying for the support of a crucial voting bloc: union members. A recent Pew Research Center study sheds light on the importance of union voters and their potential impact on the upcoming election.
The Current Landscape of Union Membership
Before diving into the political leanings of union members, it's important to understand the current state of unions in the United States:
Union membership has been on a steady decline over the past four decades. In 1983, 20.1% of American workers were unionized. By 2023, that number had dropped to just 10.0%.
Public sector workers are much more likely to be unionized (32.5%) compared to those in the private sector (6.0%).
Unionization rates vary significantly by region, with the lowest rates in the Southeast (3.1% in North Carolina) and the highest in the Northeast, Alaska, and Hawaii (with Hawaii leading at 23.7%).
Union Members and Party Affiliation
Despite the overall decline in union membership, union voters remain a significant force in American politics:
59% of union members identify with or lean towards the Democratic Party.
39% of union members associate with the Republican Party.
This Democratic lean among union members contrasts with non-union voters, who are roughly equally split between the two major parties.
The 2024 Presidential Race
In the current political climate, union voters seem to be leaning towards the Democratic ticket:
50% of union voters support Vice President Kamala Harris.
43% support former President Donald Trump.
6% favor a third-party candidate.
It's worth noting that this gap is within the survey's margin of error, indicating a potentially close race for union votes.
Perceptions of Union Decline
The majority of Americans view the decline in union membership negatively:
54% say it's bad for the country.
59% believe it's bad for working people.
However, there's a significant partisan divide on this issue:
69% of Democrats see the decline as bad for the country, compared to 40% of Republicans.
74% of Democrats view it as bad for working people, versus 43% of Republicans.
Policies and Union Members
When it comes to which candidate's policies would benefit union members:
43% of union voters believe Harris' policies would improve things for union members.
Only 26% say the same about Trump's policies.
46% of union voters think Trump's policies would make things worse for union members, compared to 23% who say this about Harris' policies.
The Overall Impact of Unions
Despite the decline in membership, a majority of Americans (55%) believe that labor unions have a positive effect on the country. However, this view is heavily influenced by political affiliation:
75% of Democrats see unions as having a positive impact.
Only 35% of Republicans share this view.
Conclusion
As we approach the 2024 election, union voters remain a critical constituency, particularly in battleground states. While they tend to lean Democratic, both parties are making concerted efforts to win their support. The declining rate of union membership adds another layer of complexity to this dynamic, as both parties grapple with the broader implications of this trend on American workers and the economy as a whole.
For candidates and policymakers alike, understanding the concerns and priorities of union members – as well as the general public's perception of unions – will be crucial in shaping effective campaign strategies and labor policies moving forward.