Don’t Just Think – Or Act Locally

Dear Leading Ladies,

It’s only the middle of spring, but not too early to be concerned about the midterm elections in November. We’ve written before about the importance of voting in our local elections for mayors and city council members, as well as school board members and state legislators, because those elected officials determine significant policies that affect our families and our everyday lives.

Now, we want to look at the seemingly opposite end of potential voter involvement; that is, the importance of getting involved in elections for governors and members of Congress in states far away from our own.

What is typical midterm turnout?

Historically, midterm elections – defined as those that occur halfway through the presidential term – do not bring out anywhere near the numbers of voters that presidential year elections do. About 60% of the voting-eligible population votes during presidential election years, and about 40% votes during midterm elections, according to fairvote. In 2018, there was a surge in midterm voting, up to 53% of eligible voters, with the largest jump among 18- to 29-year-old voters. The turnout went from 20% in 2014 to 36% in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79% jump, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The political climate in 2018 had a strong influence on the rise in midterm voting, according to an article on bloomberg. People had extreme feelings about Trump — both positive and negative – and wanted to express those feelings at the voting booth. Since “a rebuke to the president’s party is common in midterm elections” and “in only three in the last 100 years has the president’s party gained seats,” according to bloomberg, the upcoming midterms could be especially challenging for Democrats.

State election laws also affected voter turnout, both positively and negatively, in 2018. For example, Vermont introduced same-day registration, which boosted voting, while North Dakota passed a new voter ID law months before the election that required a home address, and Georgia enacted an “exact match” law requiring identical signatures for 2018 ballots, both measures cutting voter rolls.

Senate Projections for 2022 Midterms

What can we expect this year?

This year, there are a total of 469 seats in the U.S. Congress (34 Senate seats and all 435 House seats) up for election on November 8, 2022. Currently, Democrats have a caucus of 50 in the Senate, including two independents who caucus with them, having gained three in the 2020 elections. In the House, as of February, Democrats hold a 222-211 advantage with two vacant seats.

Predicting the turnout for midterms in 2022 is difficult, according to Ed Kilgore in nymag.com. He believes fewer people will vote than in the presidential election of 2020, but it is possible the numbers could reach the record breakers of 2018. There are many variables, he surmises, among them how former President Trump inserts himself into various races and the states of the pandemic and the economy in the fall. Kilgore surmises that “the changes in voting laws will be variable and possibly self-canceling.”

Why do midterms matter?

The Washington Post recently explained it best. It is not to say bipartisanship is dead, Amber Phillips explained in the Post. “Congress does many things that require Republicans and Democrats to work together. But on the really big stuff — like immigration, gun rights, health care, even funding the government — the parties increasingly do not see eye to eye.” Furthermore, she wrote, “Having a Democrat in the White House and a Republican-controlled Congress is almost certainly a recipe for gridlock.”

Midterm Congressional elections clearly determine who wields power in the legislative arm of our government – the arm of our government that passes laws. Indeed, Congress enacts bills that directly impact citizens, such as those that protect data privacy and secure voting rights. If Congress and the president are at odds, getting things done is more than difficult. Although Leading Ladies is nonpartisan in terms of political parties, we are proactive about the very real issues of gun control, equity in health care and education, an end to institutional racism, and fair immigration practices. The majority of Republicans currently serving in Congress do not share our commitment to these matters. Consequently, we are concerned about who will occupy the seats up for grabs in the House and Senate this year.

Beyond Congress, at the state level, there will be 36 governorships and 30 state attorney general offices on midterm ballots. Of the 36 governorships, 20 of them are currently occupied by Republicans. The outcomes of these elections are particularly important to the protection of abortion rights, especially as the Supreme Court weighs the reversal of Roe v. Wade in their current term, an issue of great concern to Leading Ladies. If more states start ruling against a woman’s right to choose, we can expect to see a rise in dangerous illegal abortions, women crossing state lines to receive abortions, and more babies born to women who have been raped or are unable to care for unplanned children. Clearly, there will be nationwide consequences.

What can we do?

Although history tells us that midterm elections do not bring out as many voters as presidential year elections, and that the current president’s party generally doesn’t fare well in midterms, we know that concerted efforts to get out the vote do work. Rather than throw up our hands and expect defeat, let’s consider what we can do to make the voices heard of those who represent our beliefs and values.

First off, let’s keep in mind that the first primary was in Texas on March 3, but most are between May and September. Check here for exact dates.

Learn about some candidates whom you might like to support here. Charles Booker, who is running for Rand Paul’s seat in Kentucky and 24-year-old Maxwell Frost, former national organizing director of March For Our Lives, who is running to succeed Rep. Val Demings (D), are just two of the new faces profiled.

The League of Women Voters also maintains a site, vote411.org, that has extensive nonpartisan information about candidates running for office from every state. You can read about the candidates’ experience and priorities, and decide if you would like to support any of them.

Force Multiplier sponsors events where you can meet candidates from throughout the country, virtually or in person, who are running for office and share the priorities of Leading Ladies.

You can also volunteer to write letters to encourage people to vote in the midterms at voteforward.org.

Think local and act local. But also think national and act national. We are all in this together. The soul of our country is truly in the balance.

Therese
Judy
Mary
Leading Ladies Executive Team
Leadingladiesvote.org